India less vulnerable to external shocks

The CAD in the first half of current fiscal stood at 1.4 per cent of GDP, lower than 1.8 per cent in the same period last fiscal.
NEW DELHI: Indian economy is less vulnerable to external shocks as it is mainly driven by household consumption and government spending, and not dependent on hot money which can move out quickly, Standard & Poor’s Rating Services said on Tuesday.

The US-based rating agency expects the current account deficit (CAD), which is the difference between inflow and outflow of foreign exchange, to remain at a modest level of 1.4 per cent at the end of current fiscal and would continue at similar level till 2018.

“We see India as having limited vulnerability to external economic or financial shocks. This is because growth in the economy is mainly driven by domestic factors, such as household consumption and government spending.

“At the same time this is a country that has low reliance on external savings to fund its growth. In other words, the banks are mainly deposit funded and don’t rely on wholesale funding to grow their loan books,” S&P Rating Services India Sovereign Analyst Kyran Curry told PTI.

He said India’s capital markets are diversified and deep enough for companies to raise funding.

“Another favourable aspect of India external settings is that it is generally not subject to hot money inflows that can turn into outflows with shifts in investor sentiment. As such we see the external risks for India to be relatively contained,” Curry said.

He said while export growth may be disappointing, the current account deficit likely to be a modest 1.4 per cent in 2015, with similar levels through 2018.

“Our forecasts are partly informed by our view of increased monetary credibility, which dampens the demand for monetary gold imports. In addition, we expect India to fund this deficit mostly with non-debt, creating inflows,” Curry added.

The CAD in the first half of current fiscal stood at 1.4 per cent of GDP, lower than 1.8 per cent in the same period last fiscal. For full 2014-15 fiscal, the CAD stood at 1.3 per cent of GDP.

Huge sell-off wipes out Rs 7.9 lakh crore from investor wealth in January

In 2015, the benchmark Sensex fell by 1,381.88 points, or 5 per cent after gaining nearly 30 per cent in 2014.
NEW DELHI: Weak trend in the equities have made investors poorer by Rs 7.9 lakh crore since the beginning of the month as sentiment remained muted amid global growth worries and sharp dip in oil prices.

The BSE 30-share Sensex has plummeted by 1,631.59 points or 6.24 per cent to 24,485.95 so far this month. The index had hit its 52-week low of 23,839.76 on January 20.

Tracking the extreme weakness in the stock market, the total investor wealth of firms listed at BSE plunged by Rs 7,96,903 crore to Rs 92,40,831 crore from Rs 1,00,37,734 crore at the end of December 31.

“The weakness in Chinese economy and falling crude prices have taken a toll on markets across the world, in the past couple of weeks. The resultant outflows of funds from India have impacted domestic markets also,” said Dipen Shah, Senior Vice-President & Head of Private Client Group Research, Kotak Securities.

Overseas investors have pulled out more than Rs 9,900 crore from the Indian equity markets since the beginning of the month due to global growth concerns and sharp dip in oil prices.

Sentiment was hit mostly by renewed global sell-off on worries driven by volatility in crude oil, which slid below $28 per barrel, concern over the health of the Chinese economy, while domestic economy also contributed the fall with rupee slumping over 28-month low, along with muted earnings of some of the corporates.

In 2015, the benchmark Sensex fell by 1,381.88 points, or 5 per cent after gaining nearly 30 per cent in 2014.

However, shrugging-off weak trend in stocks, the total market valuation of firms listed on the BSE rose by Rs 2 lakh crore in 2015, mainly helped by a host of new listings at the bourses last year.

RCom pays Rs 5,384 cr as spectrum liberalisation fee to DoT

A telecom tower

Reliance Communications on Wednesday said it has paid Rs 5,383.84 crore (Rs 53.83 billion) as spectrum liberalisation fee to Department of Telecommunication for radiowaves in the 800/850 MHz band held by it in 16 telecom circles.

“RCom has on January 20, 2016 paid an aggregate amount of Rs 5,383.84 crore as liberalisation fee to DoT in relation to spectrum in the 800/850 MHz band held by it in 16 telecom circles,” the company said in a statement.

“Kolkata High Court, vide its judgment dated January 14, 2016, has already directed that RCom is not required to furnish any bank guarantees for disputed OTSC, as required by DoT.”

On Monday, Reliance Communications and Reliance Jio Infocomm entered into spectrum-trading and spectrum sharing agreements allowing Reliance Jio to now get spectrum in 850 MHz band from RCOM in 9 Circles, enabling it to offer 4G LTE services.

Spectrum trading will happen in 9 circles; subsequently Reliance Jio and RCom will share spectrum in 17 circles.

Sources said eventually, spectrum sharing to be done in all 22 circles (to begin with, 17 circles in Phase 1 as RCom is still awaiting 800 MHz spectrum liberalisation demand letter from DoT in 4 circles where there is no market price benchmark [Rajasthan, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) and in last circle, J&K, there are some technical considerations which are being sorted out.

As per sources, RCom got immediate payout of Rs 4,500 crore (Rs 45 billion) from Rel Jio, and these proceeds were used to pay the Spectrum liberalisation cost.

Access to enhanced spectrum footprint in the 800 MHz band will complement RJIL’s LTE services rollout, providing increased network coverage and superior service quality

The spectrum arrangements between RJIL and RCom will result in network synergies, enhanced network capacity and optimise spectrum utilisation and capex efficiencies. Both operators see considerable savings in operating costs and future investment in networks.

Sources said that in all circles where RCom’s spectrum holdings come down to 1.25 MHz post spectrum trading deal with Reliance Jio, the company will be get 3.75 MHz of 800-850 MHz band spectrum from MTS once it proposed merger with the Russian firm is completed.

In November, India’s fourth-largest telecom operator RCom announced acquisition of Sistema’s Indian telecom unit in an all-stock deal that will create an operator with 118 million subscribers.

As per the deal, SSTL will hold about 10 per cent stake in RCom and pay off its existing debt before closing the deal.

Russian tycoon Vladimir Evtushenkov-controlled AFK Sistema currently holds 56.68 per cent stake in SSTL while Russian government owns 17.14 per cent interest. Shyam Group has 23.98 per cent stake and the rest is owned by small investors.

SSTL offers mobile telephony services under MTS brand across nine telecom circles in the country.

Rupee plunges to 28-month low amid global turmoil

Hit by global growth concerns, the rupee on Wednesday crashed below the 68-level after 28 months and closed 23 paise down at 67.95 on fresh demand for the American currency from importers amid a massive fall in domestic stock markets.

A forex dealer said that persistent foreign capital outflows also affected the market sentiment.

The domestic unit resumed lower at 67.77 per dollar as against yesterday’s closing level of 67.65 at the interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market.

Later, it depreciated further to cross 68-level after 28 months at 68.17 per dollar before ending at 67.95, showing a loss of 30 paise or 0.44 per cent.

It had last touched 68.62 a dollar on September 4, 2013.

The domestic unit hovered in a range of 67.77 and 68.17 during the day.

The dollar index was down by 0.15 per cent against a basket of six currencies in the late afternoon trade.

Overseas, the US dollar traded mostly higher against its main rivals in early Asian trade, but retreated against Japanese yen as crude oil prices descended to near 13-year lows, hitting risk asset markets and putting safe-haven currencies back in favour.

The benchmark BSE Sensex ended lower by 417.80 points or 1.71 per cent after heavy sell-off in global market.

Stock market crash: Investor wealth dips by Rs 1.84 lakh cr

Investor wealth on Wednesdaydiminished by Rs 1.84 lakh crore amid massive sell-off in the equity market following weakness in global indices due to growth worries.

The benchmark BSE Sensex tumbled 417.80 points or 1.71 per cent to end at 24,062.04 points.

With this, the index has fallen to the weakest level since May 16, 2014, the day the new government won a landslide mandate in general elections.

Following weakness in stocks, the market capitalization of BSE-listed companies fell by Rs 1,84,086 crore to Rs 90,64,734 crore.

The NSE Nifty after cracking the crucial 7,300-mark, settled 125.80 points or 1.69 per cent down at 7,309.30.

“The market ended at fresh 20-month low with the Sensex closing down 417 points as worries on global economic growth continued to roil the Asian and European markets,” said Sanjeev Zarbade, vice president-private client group Research, Kotak Securities Limited.

Among the 30-Sensex components, 27 ended in the red led by Adani Ports and SEZ, State Bank of India and Reliance Industries Ltd.

Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp and Wipro, however, ended with moderate gains.

Sectorwise, BSE realty index suffered the most, followed by metal, PSU, power, banking and oil & gas.

At the BSE, 2,105 stocks declined, while 511 advanced. 137 stocks remained unchanged.

Tracking the weak sentiment in the stock market, 194 stocks hit their 52-week lows on the BSE.

“Bears continue to hammer the bourses on global sell-off and crude hitting multi-year lows. Further, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashing its global growth forecasts also spooked the sentiment worldwide. Relentless selling by foreign portfolio investors and sharp depreciation in rupee raised concerns to the investors,” said Gaurav Jain, Director, Hem Securities.

Sikka on why Indians shouldn’t worry about jobs

Vishal Sikka

With a new World Economic Forum study warning about a net loss of over five million jobs in next five years because of the fourth industrial revolution, IT giant Infosys CEO Vishal Sikka on Wednesday said there are huge employment opportunities in India but there is a need to impart right skills and training.

Speaking at a session on ‘The Promise of Progress’ on the job market impact of the fourth industrial revolution, Sikka said there would certainly be disruptions but the new technology would not necessarily create imbalances if right kind of education, connectivity and training is provided to the people.

“There was a big startup event this weekend and it showed there are huge opportunities available in India.

“Do we prepare people for where the world is going to be? We need to impart skills. “There has to be disruptions. It should be about what the world is going to be and not what the world used to be,” he said.

Sikka dismissed suggestions that the new technology and connectivity would create imbalances.

“If we take a longer and deeper view, the more people have access to jobs, there is more likelihood that the imbalances will go away,” he said.

Noting that connectivity has to be viewed as a human right, he said, “if we equip people in the right way, there is no need to worry”.

“I am convinced the longer term solution in education, connectivity and creating right skills.

“What we need to do is promote entrepreneurship and put in place right kind of policies,” the Infosys chief added.

Current account deficit to narrow to 0.5% of GDP

Money

India’s current account deficit may narrow to 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2016 from 0.7 per cent in 2015 owing to lower commodity prices, particularly oil, says a report.

“Given lower oil prices, we expect the current account deficit to narrow to 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2016 from 0.7 per cent in 2015, despite weak exports and strengthening domestic demand,” the report by financial services major Nomura said.

The current account deficit, which occurs when the value of imports and investments is larger than value of exports, is expected to narrow to 0.5 per cent of GDP in 2016 largely owing to lower commodity prices, particularly oil.

The report noted that export volumes are likely to remain sluggish on account of weak global demand, while import volumes would rise mainly due to strong domestic demand and real effective exchange rate appreciation.

According to official figures, exports contracted for the 13th month in a row in December 2015, as outward shipments shrank 14.75 per cent to $22.2 billion amid a global demand slowdown.

Imports also plunged 3.88 per cent to $33.9 billion in December over the same month previous year.

However, gold imports shot up which increased the trade deficit to a 4-month high of $11.66 billion as against $9.17 billion recorded in December 2014.

Commenting on the trade data, Nomura said that these mirror the diverging growth trends between domestic demand and external demand.

“We expect export volumes to remain sluggish (weak global demand) but import volumes to rise (stronger domestic demand and real effective exchange rate appreciation),” the report added.

The current account deficit in the July-September quarter of current fiscal rose to $8.2 billion or 1.6 per cent of the GDP from 1.2 per cent or $6.1 billion in the April-June quarter.

This Is What A Financial Crisis Looks Like

people eyes

Just within the past few days, three major high yield funds have completely imploded, and panic is spreading rapidly.  Funds run by Third Avenue Management and Stone Lion Capital Partners have suspended payments to investors, and a fund run by Lucidus Capital Partners has liquidated its entire portfolio. 

We are witnessing a race for the exits unlike anything that we have seen since the great financial crash of 2008, and many of those that choose to hesitate are going to end up getting totally wiped out.  In case you are wondering, this is what a financial crisis looks like.  In 2008, other global stock markets started to tumble, then junk bonds began to crash, and finally U.S. stocks followed.  The exact same pattern is playing out again, and the carnage that we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg.

Since the end of 2009, a high yield bond ETF that I watch very closely known as JNK has been trading in a range between 36 and 42.  I have been waiting all this time for it to dip below 35, because I knew that would be a sign that the next major financial crisis was imminent.

In September, it closed as low as 35.33 at one point, but that was not the signal that I was looking for.  Finally, early last week JNK broke below 35 for the very first time since the last financial crisis, and since then it has just kept on falling.  As I write this, JNK has plummeted all the way to 33.42, and Bloomberg is reporting that many bond managers “are predicting more carnage for high-yield investors”…

Top bond managers are predicting more carnage for high-yield investors amid a market rout that forced at least three credit funds in the past week to wind down.

Lucidus Capital Partners, a high-yield fund founded in 2009 by former employees of Bruce Kovner’s Caxton Associates, said Monday it has liquidated its entire portfolio and plans to return the $900 million it has under management to investors next month. Funds run by Third Avenue Management and Stone Lion Capital Partners have stopped returning cash to investors, after clients sought to pull too much money.

When it says that those firms “have stopped returning cash to investors”, what that means is that many of those investors will be lucky to get pennies on the dollar when it is all said and done.

Like I said, now that the crisis has started, the ones that are going to lose the most are those that hesitate.

And just check out some of the very big names that are “warning of more high-yield trouble ahead”…

Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer at Guggenheim Partners, predicts 10 percent to 15 percent of junk bond funds may face high withdrawals as more investors worry about getting their money back. He joins money managers Jeffrey GundlachCarl IcahnBill Gross and Wilbur Ross in warning of more high-yield trouble ahead.

In this type of environment, the Federal Reserve would have to be completely insane to raise interest rates.

Unfortunately, that appears to be exactly what is going to happen.

If the Fed raises rates, that is going to make corporate debt defaults even more likely and will almost certainly drive high-yield bonds down even further…

Higher rates could make corporate bond defaults more likely and investors are already bailing out of the sector, pulling $3.8 billion out of high-yield funds in the week ended December 9, the biggest move in 15 weeks. The effective yield on U.S. junk bonds is now 17 percent, the highest level in five years, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data.

A whole host of prominent names are warning that the Fed is about to make a tragic mistake.  One of them is James Rickards…

“The Fed should have raised interest rates in 2010 and 2011 and if they did that they would actually be in a position to cut them today,” said James Rickards, a central bank critic and chief global strategist at West Shore Funds. “The Fed is on the brink of committing a historic blunder that may rank with the mistakes it made in 1927 and 1929. By raising into weakness, they will likely cause a recession.”

In 2015, we have already seen stocks crash all over the globe.  Coming into December, more than half of the 93 largest stock market indexes in the worldwere down more than 10 percent year to date, and some of them were down by as much as 30 or 40 percent.  At this point, conditions are absolutely perfect for a frightening collapse of U.S. markets, and the Federal Reserve is about to pour gasoline on to the fire.

Anyone that says that “nothing is happening” is either completely misinformed or is totally crazy.

I like how James Howard Kunstler summarized what we are currently facing…

Equities barfed nearly four percent just last week, credit is crumbling (nobody wants to lend), junk bonds are tanking (as defaults loom), currencies all around the world are crashing, hedge funds can’t give investors their money back, “liquidity” is AWOL (no buyers for janky securities), commodities are in freefall, oil is going so deep into the sub-basement of value that the industry may never recover, international trade is evaporating, the president is doing everything possible in Syria to start World War Three, and the monster called globalism is lying in its coffin with a stake pointed over its heart.

The financial markets held together far longer than many people thought that they would, but now they are finally coming apart at the seams.

Moving forward, the “winners” are going to be the people that pull their money out the fastest.  This is especially true for high risk funds like the three that just imploded.  If you hesitate, you could end up losing everything.

And as this rush for the exits accelerates, sellers are going to greatly outnumber buyers, and this is going to push prices down at a very rapid pace.  We are going to hear a lot about a “lack of liquidity” in the days ahead, but the truth is that what we will really be looking at is a good old-fashioned panic.

58 Facts About The US Economy In 2015 You Won’t Believe Are True!

globe world finance

The world didn’t completely fall apart in 2015, but it is undeniable that an immense amount of damage was done to the U.S. economy.

This year the middle class continued to deteriorate, more Americans than ever found themselves living in poverty, and the debt bubble that we are living in expanded to absolutely ridiculous proportions.

Toward the end of the year, a new global financial crisis erupted, and it threatens to completely spiral out of control as we enter 2016.  Over the past six months, I have been repeatedly stressing to my readers that so many of the exact same patterns that immediately preceded the financial crisis of 2008 are happening once again, and trillions of dollars of stock market wealth has already been wiped out globally.

Some of the largest economies on the entire planet such as Brazil and Canada have already plunged into deep recessions, and just about every leading indicator that you can think of is screaming that the U.S. is heading into one.  So don’t be fooled by all the happy talk coming from Barack Obama and the mainstream media.  When you look at the cold, hard numbers, they tell a completely different story.  The following are 58 facts about the U.S. economy from 2015 that are almost too crazy to believe…

#1 These days, most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.  At this point 62 percent of all Americans have less than 1,000 dollars in their savings accounts, and 21 percent of all Americans do not have a savings account at all.

#2 The lack of saving is especially dramatic when you look at Americans under the age of 55.  Incredibly, fewer than 10 percent of all Millennials and only about 16 percent of those that belong to Generation X have 10,000 dollars or more saved up.

#3 It has been estimated that 43 percent of all American households spend more money than they make each month.

#4 For the first time ever, middle class Americans now make up a minority of the population. But back in 1971, 61 percent of all Americans lived in middle class households.

#5 According to the Pew Research Center, the median income of middle class households declined by 4 percent from 2000 to 2014.

#6 The Pew Research Center has also found that median wealth for middle class households dropped by an astounding 28 percent between 2001 and 2013.

#7 In 1970, the middle class took home approximately 62 percent of all income. Today, that number has plummeted to just 43 percent.

#8 There are still 900,000 fewer middle class jobs in America than there were when the last recession began, but our population has gotten significantly larger since that time.

#9 According to the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year.

#10 For the poorest 20 percent of all Americans, median household wealth declined from negative 905 dollars in 2000 to negative 6,029 dollars in 2011.

#11 A recent nationwide survey discovered that 48 percent of all U.S. adults under the age of 30 believe that “the American Dream is dead”.

#12 Since hitting a peak of 69.2 percent in 2004, the rate of homeownership in the United States has been steadily declining every single year.

#13 At this point, the U.S. only ranks 19th in the world when it comes to median wealth per adult.

#14 Traditionally, entrepreneurship has been one of the primary engines that has fueled the growth of the middle class in the United States, but today the level of entrepreneurship in this country is sitting at an all-time low.

#15 For each of the past six years, more businesses have closed in the United States than have opened.  Prior to 2008, this had never happened before in all of U.S. history.

#16 If you can believe it, the 20 wealthiest people in this country now have more money than the poorest 152 million Americans combined.

#17 The top 0.1 percent of all American families have about as much wealth as the bottom 90 percent of all American families combined.

#18 If you have no debt and you also have ten dollars in your pocket, that gives you a greater net worth than about 25 percent of all Americans.

#19 The number of Americans that are living in concentrated areas of high poverty has doubled since the year 2000.

#20 An astounding 48.8 percent of all 25-year-old Americans still live at home with their parents.

#21 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 49 percent of all Americans now live in a home that receives money from the government each month, and nearly 47 million Americans are living in poverty right now.

#22 In 2007, about one out of every eight children in America was on food stamps. Today, that number is one out of every five.

#23 According to Kathryn J. Edin and H. Luke Shaefer, the authors of a new book entitled “$2.00 a Day: Living on Almost Nothing in America“, there are 1.5 million “ultrapoor” households in the United States that live on less than two dollars a day. That number has doubled since 1996.

#24 46 million Americans use food banks each year, and lines start forming at some U.S. food banks as early as 6:30 in the morning because people want to get something before the food supplies run out.

#25 The number of homeless children in the U.S. has increased by 60 percentover the past six years.

#26 According to Poverty USA, 1.6 million American children slept in a homeless shelter or some other form of emergency housing last year.

#27 Police in New York City have identified 80 separate homeless encampments in the city, and the homeless crisis there has gotten so bad that it is being described as an “epidemic”.

#28 If you can believe it, more than half of all students in our public schools are poor enough to qualify for school lunch subsidies.

#29 According to a Census Bureau report that was released a while back, 65 percent of all children in the U.S. are living in a home that receives some form of aid from the federal government.

#30 According to a report that was published by UNICEF, almost one-third of all children in this country “live in households with an income below 60 percent of the national median income”.

#31 When it comes to child poverty, the United States ranks 36th out of the 41 “wealthy nations” that UNICEF looked at.

#32 An astounding 45 percent of all African-American children in the United States live in areas of “concentrated poverty”.

#33 40.9 percent of all children in the United States that are being raised by a single parent are living in poverty.

#34 There are 7.9 million working age Americans that are “officially unemployed” right now and another 94.4 million working age Americans that are considered to be “not in the labor force”.  When you add those two numbers together, you get a grand total of 102.3 million working age Americans that do not have a job right now.

#35 According to a recent Pew survey, approximately 70 percent of all Americans believe that “debt is a necessity in their lives”.

#36 53 percent of all Americans do not even have a minimum three-day supply of nonperishable food and water at home.

#37 According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if the U.S. government was actually using honest numbers the unemployment rate in this nation would be 22.9 percent.

#38 Back in 1950, more than 80 percent of all men in the United States had jobs.  Today, only about 65 percent of all men in the United States have jobs.

#39 The labor force participation rate for men has plunged to the lowest level ever recorded.

#40 Wholesale sales in the U.S. have fallen to the lowest level since the last recession.

#41 The inventory to sales ratio has risen to the highest level since the last recession.  This means that there is a whole lot of unsold inventory that is just sitting around out there and not selling.

#42 The ISM manufacturing index has fallen for five months in a row.

#43 Orders for “core” durable goods have fallen for ten months in a row.

#44 Since March, the amount of stuff being shipped by truck, rail and air inside the United States has been falling every single month on a year over year basis.

#45 Wal-Mart is projecting that its earnings may fall by as much as 12 percentduring the next fiscal year.

#46 The Business Roundtable’s forecast for business investment in 2016 has dropped to the lowest level that we have seen since the last recession.

#47 Corporate debt defaults have risen to the highest level that we have seensince the last recession.  This is a huge problem because corporate debt in the U.S. has approximately doubled since just before the last financial crisis.

#48 Holiday sales have gone negative for the first time since the last recession.

#49 The velocity of money in the United States has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded.  Not even during the depths of the last recession was it ever this low.

#50 Barack Obama promised that his program would result in a decline in health insurance premiums by as much as $2,500 per family, but in reality average family premiums have increased by a total of $4,865 since 2008.

#51 Today, the average U.S. household that has at least one credit card has approximately $15,950 in credit card debt.

#52 The number of auto loans that exceed 72 months has hit at an all-time high of 29.5 percent.

#53 According to Dr. Housing Bubble, there have been “nearly 8 million homes lost to foreclosure since the homeownership rate peaked in 2004″.

#54 One very disturbing study found that approximately 41 percent of all working age Americans either currently have medical bill problems or are paying off medical debt.  And collection agencies seek to collect unpaid medical bills from about 30 million of us each and every year.

#55 The total amount of student loan debt in the United States has risen to a whopping 1.2 trillion dollars.  If you can believe it, that total has more than doubled over the past decade.

#56 Right now, there are approximately 40 million Americans that are paying off student loan debt.  For many of them, they will keep making payments on this debt until they are senior citizens.

#57 When you do the math, the federal government is stealing more than 100 million dollars from future generations of Americans every single hour of every single day.

#58 An astounding 8.16 trillion dollars has already been added to the U.S. national debt while Barack Obama has been in the White House.  That means that it is already guaranteed that we will add an average of more than a trillion dollars a year to the debt during his presidency, and we still have more than a year left to go.

What we have seen so far is just the very small tip of a very large iceberg.  About six months ago, I stated that “our problems will only be just beginning as we enter 2016″, and I stand by that prediction.

We are in the midst of a long-term economic collapse that is beginning to accelerate once again.  Our economic infrastructure has been gutted, our middle class is being destroyed, Wall Street has been transformed into the biggest casino in the history of the planet, and our reckless politicians have piled up the biggest mountain of debt the world has ever seen.

Anyone that believes that everything is “perfectly fine” and that we are going to come out of this “stronger than ever” is just being delusional.  This generation was handed the keys to the finest economic machine of all time, and we wrecked it.  Decades of incredibly foolish decisions have culminated in a crisis that is now reaching a crescendo, and this nation is in for a shaking unlike anything that it has ever seen before.

 

The Chinese Gold Market Essentials Guide

Gold China

Everything there is to know about the Chinese gold market and the true size of Chinese private and official gold demand. Start here.

Topical data such as monthly Chinese gold import numbers will not be updated in the Chinese Gold Market Essentials, however, this data will be published in new blog posts appearing on my BullionStar Blogs homepage, accompanied with a link to this webpage to be complete.

Understanding The Chinese Gold Market Step By Step

The unique structure of the Chinese domestic gold market, the SGE system, and why the amount of physical gold withdrawn from the vaults of the SGE (published on a weekly basis) can be used as a measure for Chinese wholesale gold demand is explained in part one: The Mechanics Of The Chinese Domestic Gold Market. It also provides a basic understanding of contrasting metrics applied to measure Chinese gold demand, and the difference between SGE withdrawals and Chinese consumer gold demand as disclosed by the World Gold Council, which has aggregated to at least 2,500 tonnes from 2007 until 2015. For whatever reason, the World Gold Council and its affiliates continuously present feeble arguments that should explain the difference. The Chinese Gold Market Essentials debunk these arguments where necessary, back up by facts, and reveal genuine Chinese gold demand.

More detailed rules regarding cross-border gold trade in and out of the Chinese domestic gold market and Free Trade Zones in China are discussed in part two: Chinese Cross-Border Gold Trade Rules.

When fully comprehending the mechanics of the Chinese domestic gold market and Chinese cross-border gold trade rules you can continue reading Workings Of The Shanghai International Gold Exchange about the international subsidiary exchange of the SGE set up to become the major gold trading hub in Asia.

Related is SGE Withdrawals In Perspective that discusses how trading activity on the Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI) can potentially blur our view on Chinese wholesale gold demand when measured by SGE withdrawals.

Congratz! At this point you have a thorough understanding of the Chinese gold market. To Study more about thedifference please continue with Chinese Commodity Financing Deals Explained, which is mainly about the Chinese gold lease market. The post also includes many links to additional posts about the Chinese gold lease market, among others, a paper written by the PBOC in 2011 exclusively translated by BullionStar.

For a detailed study on the difference, and thus genuine Chinese gold demand, please read Why SGE Withdrawals Equal Chinese Gold Demand And Why Not (The Argument List).

Finally, please read PBOC Gold Purchases: Separating Facts from Speculation for studying the amount of gold accumulated by China’s central bank in recent years in addition to private reserves. At the end of the post you can find an overview of the estimated amounts of above ground gold in China (privately owned gold and official holdings).